The Crawford Report (December 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

December 2017  

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.  

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Economic news throughout the month of December was mixed as markets and consumers reacted to the 2017 holiday season.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed its uptrend pattern for 2017 finishing the year at 24,271 points.  It is important to point out that “the Dow” recorded 70 fresh closing highs in 2017, a record that has not seen since 1896.   

The US Federal Reserve continued with its projected interest-rate increase for December and raised their forecast for economic growth in 2018. The Fed has stated it would like to see three additional rate hikes throughout 2018; however there was an uncommon lack of unity, from within the Fed, concerning these increase projections.  It appears that the “Fed Doves” believe three rate increases would be too aggressive while the “Fed Hawks” think the increases would be too slow and risk financial instability.   

The bond market showed low volatility in the Month of December continuing its sideways pattern, however many economists are concerned with the “flattening yield curve” that is taking place between the 2-year, 5-year and 10- year treasury notes.  A flattening yield curve, within the bond market, has been a past indicator of a pending recession.  The year-end closing rates were as follows: 2-Year 1.89% / 5-Year 2.20%/ 10-Year 2.40%.  Also, volatility in the Treasury market has sunk to a multi decade low with the 10-year Treasury note falling to a 52- year low, according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 

Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Futures, stated in a CNBC Trading Nation CommentaryI believe this is going to open the door to an inverted yield curve, wherein the longer-dated Treasuries carry a lower yield than those that are shorter-dated; this development is classically taken as a troubling signal for the broader market. 

 

December2017ReportImage

The 10-year note and mortgage rates remained overall stable throughout December; however, this pattern changed somewhat abruptly on January 9th 2018 when the Bank of Japan announced a cut to bond buying.  Twenty four hours later it was reported by MarketWatchthere were rumors that China may end its U.S. bond buying, as well. If the reports turn out to be true and China no longer sees Treasurys as an attractive option, the repercussions could be significant as the country is one of the biggest holders of U.S. debt. A significant change in policy could put considerable upside pressure on U.S. yields, the result of which would be an effective tightening for the U.S., said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. Bond fund manager Bill Gross, also made the statement that a “bond bear market was confirmed” with the January selloff in Treasurys.   It must be stated that the Ten Year Treasury yield has a direct impact on mortgage rates and can impact home prices and values.   

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the national unemployment rate in December was 4.1 percent.  This would be the third straight month at this level and the nation labor participation rate remained overall unchanged at 62.7 percent. Wage inflation continued to remain stagnate in November with wages and salaries increasing by only .2%.

Consumer confidence continued to fall in December after hitting a 17-year high on October 13th 2017.   The Conference Board by Nielsen presented the following statement after their most recent Consumer Confidence Survey®.,” “The decline in confidence was fueled by a somewhat less optimistic outlook for business and job prospects in the coming months. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions, however, improved moderately. Despite the decline in confidence, consumers’ expectations remain at historically strong levels, suggesting economic growth will continue well into 2018.”, said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.   

The American savings rate for November dropped once more to 2.9 percent continuing to show the weakest level since December 2007.  This was when the U.S. economy entered into the financial crisis and Great Recession.  New data released by the Federal Reserve reported that American Credit Card debt has now reached a record high of $1.021 trillion.  CNBC reported“America’s credit card balances have never been higher, but there’s no reason to think they won’t just keep climbing,” says Matt Schulz, CreditCards.com’s senior industry analyst. “Combine that with steadily rising interest rates and you have a potentially volatile mix.” Schulz says this new record should serve as wake-up call to Americans: Start tackling your debt now before it grows any more.  A recent article from The Maven.net reported. Shoppers in the U.S. racked up an average of $1,054 of debt this Christmas season — an increase of 5% over last year, according to a survey from MagnifyMoney, a personal finance website. It found 44% of shoppers racked up more than $1,000 in holiday debt, and 5% accumulated more than $5,000 in debt.  Bouncing back from those purchases won’t come quickly. Only half of those surveyed expected to repay the debt within 3 months — others (29%) said they need more than five months to pay it off, often leading to interest on the credit card debt and growing balances. In fact, 10% of people who took on holiday debt said they would only be able make minimum payments on credit cards. If the shopper spent $1,054, and paid a minimum payment of $25 each month, he or she would be paying down that balance until 2023. 

Existing homes sales jumped to an 11-year high according to the National Association of Realtors.   The NAR reported, “Total existing-home sales which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million in November”.  NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun stated,  Faster economic growth in recent quarters, the booming stock market and continuous job gains are fueling substantial demand for buying a home as 2017 comes to an end,” he said. “As evidenced by a subdued level of first-time buyers and increased share of cash buyers, move-up buyers with considerable down payments and those with cash made up a bulk of the sales activity last month. The odds of closing on a home are much better at the upper end of the market, where inventory conditions continue to be markedly better. 

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported inventory of new homes for sale dropped to a 4.6 month supply.  Inventory shortages have been a significant concern throughout most of U.S. housing markets in 2017.   

Finally, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin showed extreme price volatility in the month of December ranging from $11,000.00 to $19,000.00 before closing the year out at $14,500.00 

Overall, the month of December 2017 experienced an increase in home sales, a decrease in consumer confidence, concerns in the bond markets, and increasing warning of heavy consumer revolving debt.  

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.) 

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Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 3rd Quarter 2017. 

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter: 

Homeownership Rate             63.9% 

Homeowner Vacancy Rate    1.6% 

Rental Vacancy Rate                7.5% 

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors. 

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National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:  16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:  2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.2       4.1        4.1         4.1

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Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

 

The Crawford Report (November 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

November 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

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Overall, economic news throughout the month of November was encouraging for most key market indicators.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average set record highs on the last day of the month closing at 24,272, continuing its aggressive bull market for the past 12 months. Third quarter GDP numbers were revised upward by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to 3.3 percent, which indicated the strongest period of economic growth in three years.

Entering the fourth quarter of the year economic outlooks for 2018 were mixed with several major market participants. Goldman Sachs Research economists Jan Hatzius and Jari Stehn predicted a 4% GDP growth for next year while strategists for Societe Generale speculate 2018 will be a “year of transition” for credit markets as the low- yield environment enjoyed by investor is likely to turn.   “We expect 2018 to see the last of the good times, with very positive conditions early in the year,” said Socgen strategists Juan Esteban Valencia and Guy Stear. “In our view, the ultra-low yield environment will remain in place, making credit a very attractive proposition, even at current levels. Additionally, economic growth should remain healthy and the QE program should remain supportive of the asset class. However, at some point, we expect these idyllic conditions to start shifting.”  Economists from Guggenheim and Morgan Stanley also shared this view and speculate that global credit markets are starting to look overvalued. 

The bond market showed low volatility in the Month of November with a sideway range of higher lows and lower highs.  The Ten Year treasury yield ended the month at 2.42 percent and mortgage rates remained overall stable throughout November as well.  It must be stated that the Ten Year Treasury yield has a direct impact on mortgage rates and can impact home prices and values. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy created 261,000 jobs in October dipping the national unemployment rate to 4.1 percent; however it is important to note that the nation labor participation rate has remained overall unchanged throughout 2017 ranging from 62.9 percent in January to 62.7 percent in October.  Wage inflation continued to remain stagnate in October with wages and salaries increasing by only .3%.  Overall, on a year-over-year basis disposable income has only increased 1.6 percent. 

Consumer confidence continued to increase in November hitting a 17-year high breaking records set in the previous month.   The Conference Board by Nielsen presented the following statement after their most recent Consumer Confidence Survey®. “Consumer confidence increased for a fifth consecutive month and remains at a 17-year high,” Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.  “Consumers are entering the holiday season in very high spirits and foresee the economy expanding at a healthy pace into the early months of 2018.”

The American savings rate for October increased slightly to 3.2 percent continuing to show the weakest level since December 2007, as the U.S. economy entered into the financial crisis and Great Recession.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported New Home Sales in October rose by 6.2 percent while the inventory of new homes for sale dropped to a 4.9 month supply.  Inventory shortages have been a significant concern throughout most of U.S. housing markets.  

With lower inventory levels, buyer demand also remained strong throughout October according to the National Association of Realtors.  The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, indicated a 3.5 percent increase in contract signings and the index is at its highest reading since June of 2017. The Southern region was strongest in contract activity bouncing back from hurricane issues in September.   The index, however, is still lower than a year ago due to current inventory levels.  “Existing inventory has decreased every month on an annual basis for 29 consecutive months, and the number of homes for sale at the end of October was the lowest for the month since 1999,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the NAR, “Until new home construction climbs even higher and more investors and homeowners put their home on the market, sales will continue to severely trail underlying demand.”

It is also important to note that the cryptocurrency Bitcoin continued its upward surge in the month of November increasing from $7000.00 – $11,000.00 in thirty days. It is too early to tell what impact the currency will have on markets throughout the county and financial experts remained stunned at its meteoritic rise.  

Overall, the month of November 2017 experienced an increase in consumer confidence, employment, U.S. stock markets and continued housing demand with rates remaining stable.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 3rd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.9%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.6%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.5%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:  16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:  2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.2       4.1

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (October 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

October 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

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Much of the economic activity for the month of October can be summarized in one word…”Uptrend”. The United States stock market reached new highs during the month based primarily on companies’ earnings reports.  Edward Jones Investing reported the following information, “U.S. large-cap stocks edged higher, reaching record levels for the seventh week in a row. These gains came in what was the busiest week for earnings in the quarter. Several large-cap technology stocks reported solid earnings, pushing the NASDAQ up 2.2%.” These markets have been in an uptrend throughout 2017.

According to ADP National Employment, job growth was higher than expected with the US private sector adding 235,000 jobs in October versus the 200,000 anticipated wage inflation remained somewhat stagnate.  

Consumer optimism continued to increase in October.   The Conference Board by Nielsen presented the following statement after their most recent Consumer Confidence Survey®. “Consumer confidence increased to its highest level in almost 17 years (Dec. 2000) in October after remaining relatively flat in September,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, boosted by the job market which had not received such favorable ratings since the summer of 2001. Consumers were also considerably more upbeat about the short-term outlook, the prospect of improving business conditions as the primary driver. Confidence remains high among consumers, and their expectations suggest the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of the year.”  It is also important to note that Jeff Cox with CNBC reported the following, “Americans are saving at the lowest pace in nearly 10 years, a sign of growing confidence as money pours into risk.  The savings rate in September fell to 3.1 percent, according to Commerce Department data. That’s the weakest level since December 2007, just as the U.S. economy was entering the worst of the financial crisis amid the Great Recession.”

The bond market witnessed increasing activity as well, the U.S. Ten Year Treasury Rate increased to 2.46 percent to end the month at 2.37 percent.  This uptrend in the bond market was further solidified with a statement from Mathew Graham, Chief Operating Officer of Mortgage News Daily proclaiming in an article from October 26, 2017 that Thomson Reuters MBS indicated bond yield activity with the headline, “It’s an Uptrend!”  These upward moving trend lines have been present within the bond market since the summer and some are calling it the most important economic story being reported.  On Bloomberg Markets,  “DoubleLine Capital LP’s Jeffrey Gundlach called it “the moment of truth” for the bond market’s three-decade bull run after yields broke through 2.4 percent. Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group said this month that a sustained move through that level would signal the end of the 30-year rally”.  It must be stated that the Ten Year Treasury yield has a direct impact on mortgage rates and can impact home prices and values.  The impact is greater as housing affordability continues to be a concern for most housing experts.  Many economists speculate that the U.S. Federal Reserve with stay on track for a December 2017 rate hike as well.

Buyer demand also remained strong within most markets according to the National Association of Realtors; however supply problems continue to be a concern.  The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, was at 106.0 in September (unchanged from a downwardly revised August figure). The index is now at its lowest reading since January 2015.

Demand exceeds supply in most markets, which is keeping price growth high and essentially eliminating any savings buyers would realize from the decline in mortgage rates from earlier this year,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist,   “While most of the country, except for the South, did see minor gains in contract signings last month, activity is falling further behind last year’s pace because new listings aren’t keeping up with what’s being sold.”  He continued, “Buyers looking for a little relief from the stiff competition from over the summer may unfortunately be out of luck in the coming months,” said Yun. “Inventory starts to decline heading into the winter, and many would-be buyers from earlier in the year are still on the hunt to find a home.”

Overall, the month of October 2017 marked an uptrend in consumer confidence, employment, bond yields, the U.S. stock markets, and continued housing demand.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 3rd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.9%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.6%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.5%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:  16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:  2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.2

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (September 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

September 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

Economic numbers for September were mixed due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma that affected both the Texas and Florida markets. The National Association of Realtors expects that these storms will drop existing home sales below the pace they set in 2016, however, more definitive information and data with be forthcoming at the end of October. The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, retreated 2.6 percent to 106.3 in August from 109.1 in July. The index is considered to be at its lowest reading since January 2016, and has fallen on an annual basis in four of the past five months.  The low supply levels of inventory throughout the summer months created a “lopsided” effect throughout most markets and drained a significant portion of the housing market’s momentum for 2017.  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said recently, “August was another month of declining contract activity because of the one-two punch of limited listings and home prices rising far above incomes.  Demand continues to overwhelm supply in most of the country, and as a result, many would-be buyers from earlier in the year are still in the market for a home, while others have perhaps decided to temporarily postpone their search.”  Mr. Yun believes that the housing market has essentially stalled which prompted the National Association of Realtors to downgrade its forecast of home sales for the remainder of the year. 

This would bring pending home sales lower than levels experienced in 2016.  Housing affordability has been a major concern with the NAR throughout much of the year; however, personal income met expectations and rose .02 percent in August.

It is also important to note that the Federal Reserve has indicated that they would begin the “unwinding” process of their past quantitative easing programs and the opinion of many economists are mixed on the results of this policy.

The 10-year U.S Treasury yield fell to 2.05 percent in September (9/7/2017) – its lowest level since November of 2016; however the yield aggressively climbed throughout the month to finish at 2.33 percent (9/29/2017).  Mortgage interest rates remained overall stable with the move; however, there is some concern within the bond market that rates are “unsustainably low” and could begin a momentum shift to higher levels.  The 10-year Treasury yield has a direct impact on mortgage interest rates and could affect housing affordably for many buyers throughout the county.  This would also have an impact on home prices and values. 

Consumer confidence hit a seven-month high in August of this year but declined more than expected in September to 95.1 according to The University of Michigan.  Even though the confidence numbers were down for the month, Richard Curtain, Chief Economist for the Surveys of Consumers, stated “The resilience of consumers has again been demonstrated as concerns about the impact of the hurricanes on the national economy have quickly faded…. This was indicated through a “willingness to spend and incur debt.” 

The Conference Board had some additional information concerning consumer confidence.  Their study focused on consumers that are planning to buy a new home within the next six months. In September, there were 1.0% of the respondents planning to buy a new home within six months, compared with 1.2% in August.  The underlying trend in this analysis has been moving upward since 2012.  Consumer confidence plays a major role within the national real estate market and contributes to overall supply and demand activity.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 2nd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.7%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.5%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.3%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3       4.4

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the final reading released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (August 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

August 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

For most of 2017 the national housing market was considered “lopsided” due to ongoing supply shortages.  These shortages continued to affect markets in the month of August with pending home sales declining for the fourth time in five months, according to the National Association of Realtors.  These numbers have led NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun to view inventory issues as “Staggering” with little signs of change.  Mr. Yun recently stated, “With the exception of a minimal gain in the West, pending sales were weaker in most areas in July as house hunters saw limited options for sale and highly competitive market conditions.  The housing market remains stuck in a holding pattern with little signs of breaking through. The pace of new listings is not catching up with what’s being sold at an astonishingly fast pace.” Additional pressure on housing affordability continued to show an unsustainable trend.  The national median home price has increased three times higher, in the past five years, than hourly earnings.  Mr. Yun also pointed out that, “Data and feedback from Realtors continues to confirm that the slowdown in existing sales since spring is the result of a supply problem and not one of diminished demand.”

Further strength in housing demand was supported by Nielsen’s monthly Consumer Confidence Survey stated the following, “Consumer confidence increased in August following a moderate improvement in July.  Consumers’ more buoyant assessment of present-day conditions was the primary driver of the boost in confidence. Consumers’ short-term expectations were relatively flat, though still optimistic, suggesting that they do not anticipate acceleration in the pace of economic activity in the months ahead.” Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved further in August. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 32.5 percent to 34.5 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” moderated from 13.5 percent to 13.1 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more upbeat. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” rose from 33.2 percent to 35.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 18.7 percent to 17.3 percent.

With demand for housing continuing to remain strong throughout most of the county, the 10-year U.S Treasury yield fell to 2.07 percent – its lowest level since November of 2016.  This has pushed mortgage interest rates to their lowest level for the year.  Some experts including Larry McDonald of ACG Analytics predict there may be a rise in bond yields “in a big way.”    “Geopolitical risk is driving yields much, much lower,” McDonald said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” Yields are being driven “unsustainably lower, in our view.”  McDonald compared the 10-year yield to “a beach ball under water” which is currently being “extremely suppressed by geopolitical risk”.   If these risks dissipate and economic conditions are considered strong, Mr. McDonald speculated, “That will drive bond yields much higher,” given that it could lead to a stronger economy, and could lead individuals to sell bonds (driving up yields) in order to buy stocks.

The 10-year Treasury yield has a direct impact on mortgage interest rates and could affect housing affordably for many buyers throughout the county.  This would also have an impact on home prices and values. 

CNBC also reported, “U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in July, hitting a nine-month low amid a steep decline in investment in private structures. Construction spending was expected to reverse June’s losses to gain 0.6 percent in July. The indicator missed forecasts in the previous month when it declined 1.3 percent.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 2nd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.7%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.5%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.3%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3       4.4

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (July 2017)

CrawfodReportBanner

Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

July 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

Sales activity for June 2017 was considered “lopsided” due to ongoing supply shortages.  The same could also be said for the month of July.  “Market conditions in many areas continue to be fast paced, with few properties to choose from, which are forcing buyers to act almost immediately on an available home that fits their criteria”, stated Lawrence Yun, Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.  NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index saw a slight 1.5 percent increase in pending home sales; however, Mr. Yun was quick to point out, “Low supply is an ongoing issue holding back activity. Housing inventory declined last month and is a staggering 7.1 percent lower than a year ago….the home search will still likely be a strenuous undertaking in coming months because supply shortages in most areas are most severe at the lower end of the market.”

It is also important to point out that affordability concerns are still present in housing markets throughout the country. The NAR released its 2017 National Housing Pulse Survey in which 44 percent of respondents categorized the lack of available affordable housing as a very big or fairly big problem.  Housing affordability with the possibility of rising interest rates could have a direct impact on housing pricing moving forward. 

The 10-Year treasury rate showed little activity in July, ending the month at 2.30 percent.   Interest rates made headlines throughout media sources due to the expected “unwinding” of the Federal Reserve’s $4.5 Trillion balance sheet in September of 2017.  This would start with the Fed reducing its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities by $10 billion a month.  The central bank is then expected by many economists to raise interest rates by another quarter point in December.  Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said “They’re stumped.  I think they [the Fed] will continue on a path of monetary tightening because they will expect wages will accelerate…I expect them to do more on the balance sheet in September and move on rates later in the year.”  Wage inflation will remain a top concern for most real estate market analysists, real estate appraisers, and the Federal Reserve.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan shocked markets on August 4th 2017.  In a CNBC interview he stated the following:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan issued a bold warning Friday that the bond market is on the cusp of a collapse that also will threaten stock prices. The longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.  “The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there’s only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid,” Greenspan said on “Squawk Box.”  He went on to say that he “had no time frame on the forecast.”

This statement from Mr. Greenspan coincides with the statement of Matthew Graham from Mortgage News Daily in which he indicated that an upward momentum in interest rates would continue, throughout the year, with central bank policy.  Mortgage interest rates have a direct impact on home prices and could affect future values.   

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 2nd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.7%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.5%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.3%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3      

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “advanced” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (June 2017)

CrawfodReportBanner

Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

June 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

The overall feeling about national home sale activity for June 2017 could be summed up in one word “lopsided”.  The ongoing supply shortages that are propping up home prices in many metro areas caused pending home sales in May to slump for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. None of the major regions saw an increase in contract activity last month.  This data prompted Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, to speculate that the nation may have seen a peak in sales activity for 2017.  He stated, “Monthly closings have recently been oscillating back and forth, but this third consecutive decline in contract activity implies a possible topping off in sales.  Buyer interest is solid, but there is just not enough supply to satisfy demand. Prospective buyers are being sidelined by both limited choices and home prices that are climbing too fast.”  Mr. Yun also pointed out that housing shortages are most severe in the lower price ranges.  The month of June also indicated weaker economic confidence.  The NAR’s quarterly Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey,  found that fewer renters think it’s a good time to buy a home, and respondents overall are less confident about the economy and their financial situation than earlier this year. “The lack of listings in an affordable price range is creating lopsided conditions in many areas where investors and repeat buyers with larger down payments are making up a bulk of the sales activity,” said Mr. Yun. “Meanwhile, many prospective first-time buyers can’t catch a break. Prices are going up and there’s intense competition for the homes they’re financially able to purchase.” 

It is important to note that 71% of homeowners, compared to a year ago; think now is a good time to sell.  This overall sentiment, however, has not produced more active listings in national markets.   Most homeowners are concerned over what Mr. Yun refers to as the “Musical Chairs” of real estate.  When a homeowner sells a home, because of limited marketing time, they are concerned over where they will land for their next home purchase.  These trends could be keeping many home sellers on the sidelines for the near future but Mr. Yun did state, “Perhaps this notable uptick in seller confidence will translate to more added inventory later this year. Low housing turnover is one of the roots of the ongoing supply and affordability problems plaguing many markets”.

The 10-Year treasury rates showed little activity in June, except for the last days of the month when the rate jumped to 2.31 percent.  This was before the July 4th holiday.  Many speculate that the bond selloff at the end of the month was prompted by statements from the European Central Bank that the bank would start to taper its monetary easing efforts.  This caused mortgage rates to climb at an accelerated rate in the first week of July.  Mortgage interest rates play an important role on housing affordability and could have a significant impact on housing prices and values going forward.  This movement was summed up best in an article by Matthew Graham from Mortgage News Daily in which he stated: “This is a big, serious move for global bond markets.  There’s no way around the fact that tapering on the part of the world’s “other” colossal central bank (Fed and ECB are way bigger than any other central bank) is a game-changer.  Don’t assume that we’ll quickly be able to shake off this new momentum.  Assume it can continue until and unless we see a definitive bounce (and unless the ECB suddenly recommits to a ton of bond buying–which is unlikely if not impossible–a definitive bounce is a ways off).”  It is important to note that Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s widely followed chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, stated central bank easing (US Federal Reserve included) may no longer be “politically acceptable” which would further support a change in momentum in global bond markets and a possible increase in interest rates.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 1st Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.6%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.7%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.0%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.”

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

 

The Crawford Report (May 2017)

CrawfodReportBanner

Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

May 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

NAR Reports and Rate Information

On April 18, 2017 the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dipped to 2.17 percent.  Since that time the yield has showed high volatility jumping to 2.39 percent in mid-May and finishing the month around 2.199 percent.  The 10-Year Treasury yield has a direct impact on 30-year mortgage interest rates and could increase demand for housing as the cost to borrow money decreases for many homebuyers.  Mortgage rates remained stable in the month of May, continuing a “sideways” trend for the past 30 days.    

Multiple offers continue to be common place in many real estate markets.  Most activity for such “bid ups” is taking place in homes, in good condition, priced in the $100,000 to $250,000 range. These dwellings show strong demand in housing markets and trends indicate that days on market continue to fall below 30 days, on average.  Multiple offer activity also increased due to low levels of active inventory.  These low levels of inventory and growing concerns over housing affordability remain high with the National Association of Realtors. 

The National Association of Realtors stated on May 31, 2017, “Pending home sales in April slumped for the second consecutive month and were down year-over-year nationally and in all four major regions.  Only the West saw an increase in contract signings last month.” 

The NAR was quick to point out that the decrease in pending homes sales was not due to lack of demand, but a lack of supply.  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, stated “contract activity is fading this spring because significantly weak supply levels are spurring deteriorating affordability conditions. Much of the country for the second straight month saw a pullback in pending sales as the rate of new listings continues to lag the quicker pace of homes coming off the market. Realtors are indicating that foot traffic is higher than a year ago, but it’s obviously not translating to more sales.”  Yun also stated, “Prospective buyers are feeling the double whammy this spring of inventory that’s down 9.0 percent from a year ago and price appreciation that’s much faster than any rise they’ve likely seen in their income.”  

All indicators show that the low levels of supply, throughout most real estate markets, will not end soon.

Mr. Yun continued with giving some “financial advice” to rental property investors in the hopes on increasing inventory levels.  He stated, “The unloading of single-family homes purchased by real estate investors during the downturn for rental purposes would also go a long way in helping relieve these inventory shortages.  To date, there are no indications investors are ready to sell. However, they should be mindful of the fact that rental demand will soften as the overall population of young adults starts to shrink in roughly five years.

Mr. Yun’s interview is available at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8CGoa1VB6o

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Foreclosure and  Activity

It is important to note that REO and Foreclosure activity vary from different marketing areas.

Black Knight Financial Services reported the following data for April 2017.  Inventory in active foreclosure continued to decline, hitting a 10-year low in April.  This low foreclosure rate has been consistent with national macro-economic data from the past six months.  While the foreclosure rate continues to decline, first-lien mortgage delinquencies painted a different picture.  First-lien mortgage delinquencies rose by 13 percent, the largest monthly increase since November 2008; however these were primarily early-stage delinquencies. 

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 1st Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.6%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.7%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.0%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (April 2017)

CrawfodReportBanner

Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

April 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

Rates and Dates

Overall, mortgage rates remained stable in the month of April.  The 10 year Treasury yield started the month at 2.35 percent and ended the month at 2.29 percent.  The 10 year Treasury note is considered to be a key factor in determining the movement of mortgage interest rates.  Most experts continue to believe that the Federal Reserve will continue increasing interest rates throughout 2017 despite new data which indicates slower overall economic growth in the first quarter of 2017.  In a recent interview with Bloomberg News, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated, “the Trump Administration was considering Ultra-Long Bonds to finance infrastructure projects”. Interest rate increases and maturity rates could have a direct impact on housing pricing and affordability. 

———————————————————————————————————————

New Construction and Housing Starts

New construction competition on existing dwellings remained overall stable within some markets throughout the country.  The appraiser will address this competition factor within the appraisal report if it affects the subject property’s neighborhood. 

Construction spending dipped slightly in March, although privately funded spending held its ground and residential construction activity was at a higher pace than in February. 

Single family construction spending rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 7.5 percent on an annual basis to a rate of $258.48 billion. Unadjusted spending totaled $20.09 billion for the month and was running 3.9 percent ahead of last year through the end of March.  Multi-family construction spending was 2.0 percent higher than in February and 7.4 percent higher than in March 2016.

Builders are continuing to focus on single family homes as lack of inventory concerns affect many markets throughout the county.  Multifamily construction shows stronger numbers due to lower homeownership statics and low interest rates are forcing investors to look for additional yield with rental properties.  Many builders continue to use the “slow release” concept within their developments to maximize the profits and price points from each single family sale. This practice does not allow additional lots to be released for sale and new lot premiums are being applied within builder contracts.  These lot premiums could increase the marketability of a single family unit at the time of sale; however may have no direct impact on its value for a future resale. 

———————————————————————————————————————

Foreclosure Activity

It is important to note that REO and Foreclosure activity vary from different marketing areas.

ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s largest fused property database, recently released the U.S Foreclosure Market Report for Q1 of 2017.  Nationwide the report shows foreclosure filings, which consist of default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, were down 11 percent from the previous quarter and down 19 percent from a year ago to the lowest level since Q3 2006.  This low foreclosure inventory is common throughout most markets, however, there are growing concerns with the bulk sales of “serious delinquent” mortgage packages to investment hedge funds.  These sales may have a direct impact on active REO inventory coming to market and could be contributing to some aspects of housing shortages. 

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 1st Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.6%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.7%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.0%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Association of Realtors Information and News

A recent CNBC article dated April 24, 2017 stated in the headline “Spring housing: Strongest seller’s market ever”.  This is one of many such articles that made economic news in the month of April.  Low housing inventory continues to be a concern for many buyers throughout the county. 

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released new data on April 21, 2017 which indicated existing-home sales took off in March to their highest pace in over 10 years, and severe supply shortages resulted in the typical home coming off the market significantly faster than in February and a year ago. 

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated, “”Bolstered by strong consumer confidence and underlying demand, home sales are up convincingly from a year ago nationally and in all four major regions despite the fact that buying a home has gotten more expensive over the past year.”

Mr. Yun stated in his monthly speech that sales were higher by 5.9 percent which was better than what he had anticipated in the first three months of this year.  He felt the first three months of 2017 would be basically the same as the past year particularly in the light of affordability challenges from higher mortgage rates, and home prices that are easily outpacing people’s income.  Only last month, Mr. Yun stated that, “home prices are rising, perhaps a little too strongly”.  He admitted that housing prices are increasing nationwide at a higher pace that he anticipated and that national housing price increases are “tripling people’s wage growth”. The overall lack of inventory has continued and the number of active listing is down 6.6 percent from March of 2016. 

Mr. Yun also made the point that there is no condition, within national markets, were affordability is hurting sales as long as the job market remains strong. 

This interview can be found at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaNqRxKXQAQ

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

——————————————————————————————————————–

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

   

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