The Crawford Report (September 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

September 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

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Economic numbers for September were mixed due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma that affected both the Texas and Florida markets. The National Association of Realtors expects that these storms will drop existing home sales below the pace they set in 2016, however, more definitive information and data with be forthcoming at the end of October. The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, retreated 2.6 percent to 106.3 in August from 109.1 in July. The index is considered to be at its lowest reading since January 2016, and has fallen on an annual basis in four of the past five months.  The low supply levels of inventory throughout the summer months created a “lopsided” effect throughout most markets and drained a significant portion of the housing market’s momentum for 2017.  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said recently, “August was another month of declining contract activity because of the one-two punch of limited listings and home prices rising far above incomes.  Demand continues to overwhelm supply in most of the country, and as a result, many would-be buyers from earlier in the year are still in the market for a home, while others have perhaps decided to temporarily postpone their search.”  Mr. Yun believes that the housing market has essentially stalled which prompted the National Association of Realtors to downgrade its forecast of home sales for the remainder of the year. 

This would bring pending home sales lower than levels experienced in 2016.  Housing affordability has been a major concern with the NAR throughout much of the year; however, personal income met expectations and rose .02 percent in August.

It is also important to note that the Federal Reserve has indicated that they would begin the “unwinding” process of their past quantitative easing programs and the opinion of many economists are mixed on the results of this policy.

The 10-year U.S Treasury yield fell to 2.05 percent in September (9/7/2017) – its lowest level since November of 2016; however the yield aggressively climbed throughout the month to finish at 2.33 percent (9/29/2017).  Mortgage interest rates remained overall stable with the move; however, there is some concern within the bond market that rates are “unsustainably low” and could begin a momentum shift to higher levels.  The 10-year Treasury yield has a direct impact on mortgage interest rates and could affect housing affordably for many buyers throughout the county.  This would also have an impact on home prices and values. 

Consumer confidence hit a seven-month high in August of this year but declined more than expected in September to 95.1 according to The University of Michigan.  Even though the confidence numbers were down for the month, Richard Curtain, Chief Economist for the Surveys of Consumers, stated “The resilience of consumers has again been demonstrated as concerns about the impact of the hurricanes on the national economy have quickly faded…. This was indicated through a “willingness to spend and incur debt.” 

The Conference Board had some additional information concerning consumer confidence.  Their study focused on consumers that are planning to buy a new home within the next six months. In September, there were 1.0% of the respondents planning to buy a new home within six months, compared with 1.2% in August.  The underlying trend in this analysis has been moving upward since 2012.  Consumer confidence plays a major role within the national real estate market and contributes to overall supply and demand activity.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

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Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 2nd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.7%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.5%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.3%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

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National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3       4.4

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the final reading released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (August 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

August 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

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For most of 2017 the national housing market was considered “lopsided” due to ongoing supply shortages.  These shortages continued to affect markets in the month of August with pending home sales declining for the fourth time in five months, according to the National Association of Realtors.  These numbers have led NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun to view inventory issues as “Staggering” with little signs of change.  Mr. Yun recently stated, “With the exception of a minimal gain in the West, pending sales were weaker in most areas in July as house hunters saw limited options for sale and highly competitive market conditions.  The housing market remains stuck in a holding pattern with little signs of breaking through. The pace of new listings is not catching up with what’s being sold at an astonishingly fast pace.” Additional pressure on housing affordability continued to show an unsustainable trend.  The national median home price has increased three times higher, in the past five years, than hourly earnings.  Mr. Yun also pointed out that, “Data and feedback from Realtors continues to confirm that the slowdown in existing sales since spring is the result of a supply problem and not one of diminished demand.”

Further strength in housing demand was supported by Nielsen’s monthly Consumer Confidence Survey stated the following, “Consumer confidence increased in August following a moderate improvement in July.  Consumers’ more buoyant assessment of present-day conditions was the primary driver of the boost in confidence. Consumers’ short-term expectations were relatively flat, though still optimistic, suggesting that they do not anticipate acceleration in the pace of economic activity in the months ahead.” Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved further in August. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 32.5 percent to 34.5 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” moderated from 13.5 percent to 13.1 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also more upbeat. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” rose from 33.2 percent to 35.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 18.7 percent to 17.3 percent.

With demand for housing continuing to remain strong throughout most of the county, the 10-year U.S Treasury yield fell to 2.07 percent – its lowest level since November of 2016.  This has pushed mortgage interest rates to their lowest level for the year.  Some experts including Larry McDonald of ACG Analytics predict there may be a rise in bond yields “in a big way.”    “Geopolitical risk is driving yields much, much lower,” McDonald said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” Yields are being driven “unsustainably lower, in our view.”  McDonald compared the 10-year yield to “a beach ball under water” which is currently being “extremely suppressed by geopolitical risk”.   If these risks dissipate and economic conditions are considered strong, Mr. McDonald speculated, “That will drive bond yields much higher,” given that it could lead to a stronger economy, and could lead individuals to sell bonds (driving up yields) in order to buy stocks.

The 10-year Treasury yield has a direct impact on mortgage interest rates and could affect housing affordably for many buyers throughout the county.  This would also have an impact on home prices and values. 

CNBC also reported, “U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in July, hitting a nine-month low amid a steep decline in investment in private structures. Construction spending was expected to reverse June’s losses to gain 0.6 percent in July. The indicator missed forecasts in the previous month when it declined 1.3 percent.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

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Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 2nd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.7%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.5%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.3%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

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National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3       4.4

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (July 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

July 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

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Sales activity for June 2017 was considered “lopsided” due to ongoing supply shortages.  The same could also be said for the month of July.  “Market conditions in many areas continue to be fast paced, with few properties to choose from, which are forcing buyers to act almost immediately on an available home that fits their criteria”, stated Lawrence Yun, Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.  NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index saw a slight 1.5 percent increase in pending home sales; however, Mr. Yun was quick to point out, “Low supply is an ongoing issue holding back activity. Housing inventory declined last month and is a staggering 7.1 percent lower than a year ago….the home search will still likely be a strenuous undertaking in coming months because supply shortages in most areas are most severe at the lower end of the market.”

It is also important to point out that affordability concerns are still present in housing markets throughout the country. The NAR released its 2017 National Housing Pulse Survey in which 44 percent of respondents categorized the lack of available affordable housing as a very big or fairly big problem.  Housing affordability with the possibility of rising interest rates could have a direct impact on housing pricing moving forward. 

The 10-Year treasury rate showed little activity in July, ending the month at 2.30 percent.   Interest rates made headlines throughout media sources due to the expected “unwinding” of the Federal Reserve’s $4.5 Trillion balance sheet in September of 2017.  This would start with the Fed reducing its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities by $10 billion a month.  The central bank is then expected by many economists to raise interest rates by another quarter point in December.  Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said “They’re stumped.  I think they [the Fed] will continue on a path of monetary tightening because they will expect wages will accelerate…I expect them to do more on the balance sheet in September and move on rates later in the year.”  Wage inflation will remain a top concern for most real estate market analysists, real estate appraisers, and the Federal Reserve.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan shocked markets on August 4th 2017.  In a CNBC interview he stated the following:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan issued a bold warning Friday that the bond market is on the cusp of a collapse that also will threaten stock prices. The longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.  “The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there’s only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid,” Greenspan said on “Squawk Box.”  He went on to say that he “had no time frame on the forecast.”

This statement from Mr. Greenspan coincides with the statement of Matthew Graham from Mortgage News Daily in which he indicated that an upward momentum in interest rates would continue, throughout the year, with central bank policy.  Mortgage interest rates have a direct impact on home prices and could affect future values.   

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 2nd Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.7%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.5%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.3%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3       4.4       4.3      

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “advanced” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (June 2017)

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Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

June 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

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The overall feeling about national home sale activity for June 2017 could be summed up in one word “lopsided”.  The ongoing supply shortages that are propping up home prices in many metro areas caused pending home sales in May to slump for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. None of the major regions saw an increase in contract activity last month.  This data prompted Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, to speculate that the nation may have seen a peak in sales activity for 2017.  He stated, “Monthly closings have recently been oscillating back and forth, but this third consecutive decline in contract activity implies a possible topping off in sales.  Buyer interest is solid, but there is just not enough supply to satisfy demand. Prospective buyers are being sidelined by both limited choices and home prices that are climbing too fast.”  Mr. Yun also pointed out that housing shortages are most severe in the lower price ranges.  The month of June also indicated weaker economic confidence.  The NAR’s quarterly Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey,  found that fewer renters think it’s a good time to buy a home, and respondents overall are less confident about the economy and their financial situation than earlier this year. “The lack of listings in an affordable price range is creating lopsided conditions in many areas where investors and repeat buyers with larger down payments are making up a bulk of the sales activity,” said Mr. Yun. “Meanwhile, many prospective first-time buyers can’t catch a break. Prices are going up and there’s intense competition for the homes they’re financially able to purchase.” 

It is important to note that 71% of homeowners, compared to a year ago; think now is a good time to sell.  This overall sentiment, however, has not produced more active listings in national markets.   Most homeowners are concerned over what Mr. Yun refers to as the “Musical Chairs” of real estate.  When a homeowner sells a home, because of limited marketing time, they are concerned over where they will land for their next home purchase.  These trends could be keeping many home sellers on the sidelines for the near future but Mr. Yun did state, “Perhaps this notable uptick in seller confidence will translate to more added inventory later this year. Low housing turnover is one of the roots of the ongoing supply and affordability problems plaguing many markets”.

The 10-Year treasury rates showed little activity in June, except for the last days of the month when the rate jumped to 2.31 percent.  This was before the July 4th holiday.  Many speculate that the bond selloff at the end of the month was prompted by statements from the European Central Bank that the bank would start to taper its monetary easing efforts.  This caused mortgage rates to climb at an accelerated rate in the first week of July.  Mortgage interest rates play an important role on housing affordability and could have a significant impact on housing prices and values going forward.  This movement was summed up best in an article by Matthew Graham from Mortgage News Daily in which he stated: “This is a big, serious move for global bond markets.  There’s no way around the fact that tapering on the part of the world’s “other” colossal central bank (Fed and ECB are way bigger than any other central bank) is a game-changer.  Don’t assume that we’ll quickly be able to shake off this new momentum.  Assume it can continue until and unless we see a definitive bounce (and unless the ECB suddenly recommits to a ton of bond buying–which is unlikely if not impossible–a definitive bounce is a ways off).”  It is important to note that Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s widely followed chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, stated central bank easing (US Federal Reserve included) may no longer be “politically acceptable” which would further support a change in momentum in global bond markets and a possible increase in interest rates.

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 1st Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.6%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.7%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.0%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4       4.3

 

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.”

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

 

The Crawford Report (May 2017)

CrawfodReportBanner

Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

May 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

NAR Reports and Rate Information

On April 18, 2017 the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dipped to 2.17 percent.  Since that time the yield has showed high volatility jumping to 2.39 percent in mid-May and finishing the month around 2.199 percent.  The 10-Year Treasury yield has a direct impact on 30-year mortgage interest rates and could increase demand for housing as the cost to borrow money decreases for many homebuyers.  Mortgage rates remained stable in the month of May, continuing a “sideways” trend for the past 30 days.    

Multiple offers continue to be common place in many real estate markets.  Most activity for such “bid ups” is taking place in homes, in good condition, priced in the $100,000 to $250,000 range. These dwellings show strong demand in housing markets and trends indicate that days on market continue to fall below 30 days, on average.  Multiple offer activity also increased due to low levels of active inventory.  These low levels of inventory and growing concerns over housing affordability remain high with the National Association of Realtors. 

The National Association of Realtors stated on May 31, 2017, “Pending home sales in April slumped for the second consecutive month and were down year-over-year nationally and in all four major regions.  Only the West saw an increase in contract signings last month.” 

The NAR was quick to point out that the decrease in pending homes sales was not due to lack of demand, but a lack of supply.  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, stated “contract activity is fading this spring because significantly weak supply levels are spurring deteriorating affordability conditions. Much of the country for the second straight month saw a pullback in pending sales as the rate of new listings continues to lag the quicker pace of homes coming off the market. Realtors are indicating that foot traffic is higher than a year ago, but it’s obviously not translating to more sales.”  Yun also stated, “Prospective buyers are feeling the double whammy this spring of inventory that’s down 9.0 percent from a year ago and price appreciation that’s much faster than any rise they’ve likely seen in their income.”  

All indicators show that the low levels of supply, throughout most real estate markets, will not end soon.

Mr. Yun continued with giving some “financial advice” to rental property investors in the hopes on increasing inventory levels.  He stated, “The unloading of single-family homes purchased by real estate investors during the downturn for rental purposes would also go a long way in helping relieve these inventory shortages.  To date, there are no indications investors are ready to sell. However, they should be mindful of the fact that rental demand will soften as the overall population of young adults starts to shrink in roughly five years.

Mr. Yun’s interview is available at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8CGoa1VB6o

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

———————————————————————————————————————

Foreclosure and  Activity

It is important to note that REO and Foreclosure activity vary from different marketing areas.

Black Knight Financial Services reported the following data for April 2017.  Inventory in active foreclosure continued to decline, hitting a 10-year low in April.  This low foreclosure rate has been consistent with national macro-economic data from the past six months.  While the foreclosure rate continues to decline, first-lien mortgage delinquencies painted a different picture.  First-lien mortgage delinquencies rose by 13 percent, the largest monthly increase since November 2008; however these were primarily early-stage delinquencies. 

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 1st Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.6%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.7%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.0%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Unemployment Numbers

The following unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics/  (www.bls.gov).  The current national unemployment rate is 4.4%.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey                    

Age:   16 years and over                                                                                                 

Years:            2014 to 2017

 

Percentage                                                                                                                                     

2014   6.6       6.7       6.7       6.2       6.2       6.1       6.2       6.2       6.0       5.7       5.8       5.6

2015   5.7       5.5       5.5       5.4       5.5       5.3       5.3       5.1       5.1       5.0       5.0       5.0

2016   4.9       4.9       5.0       5.0       4.7       4.9       4.9       4.9       5.0       4.9       4.6       4.7

2017   4.8      4.7       4.5       4.4

———————————————————————————————————————

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

The Crawford Report (April 2017)

CrawfodReportBanner

Copyright©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved.

April 2017

This analysis is to provide general macro-economic data and information for intended users and clients of appraisal reports. The appraiser may incorporate this information in the appraisal process and add it to the scope of work of the appraisal assignment to help the reader (of the appraisal report) better understand economic conditions at the time of the appraisal and the stated effective date of the assignment.

———————————————————————————————————————

Rates and Dates

Overall, mortgage rates remained stable in the month of April.  The 10 year Treasury yield started the month at 2.35 percent and ended the month at 2.29 percent.  The 10 year Treasury note is considered to be a key factor in determining the movement of mortgage interest rates.  Most experts continue to believe that the Federal Reserve will continue increasing interest rates throughout 2017 despite new data which indicates slower overall economic growth in the first quarter of 2017.  In a recent interview with Bloomberg News, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated, “the Trump Administration was considering Ultra-Long Bonds to finance infrastructure projects”. Interest rate increases and maturity rates could have a direct impact on housing pricing and affordability. 

———————————————————————————————————————

New Construction and Housing Starts

New construction competition on existing dwellings remained overall stable within some markets throughout the country.  The appraiser will address this competition factor within the appraisal report if it affects the subject property’s neighborhood. 

Construction spending dipped slightly in March, although privately funded spending held its ground and residential construction activity was at a higher pace than in February. 

Single family construction spending rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 7.5 percent on an annual basis to a rate of $258.48 billion. Unadjusted spending totaled $20.09 billion for the month and was running 3.9 percent ahead of last year through the end of March.  Multi-family construction spending was 2.0 percent higher than in February and 7.4 percent higher than in March 2016.

Builders are continuing to focus on single family homes as lack of inventory concerns affect many markets throughout the county.  Multifamily construction shows stronger numbers due to lower homeownership statics and low interest rates are forcing investors to look for additional yield with rental properties.  Many builders continue to use the “slow release” concept within their developments to maximize the profits and price points from each single family sale. This practice does not allow additional lots to be released for sale and new lot premiums are being applied within builder contracts.  These lot premiums could increase the marketability of a single family unit at the time of sale; however may have no direct impact on its value for a future resale. 

———————————————————————————————————————

Foreclosure Activity

It is important to note that REO and Foreclosure activity vary from different marketing areas.

ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s largest fused property database, recently released the U.S Foreclosure Market Report for Q1 of 2017.  Nationwide the report shows foreclosure filings, which consist of default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, were down 11 percent from the previous quarter and down 19 percent from a year ago to the lowest level since Q3 2006.  This low foreclosure inventory is common throughout most markets, however, there are growing concerns with the bulk sales of “serious delinquent” mortgage packages to investment hedge funds.  These sales may have a direct impact on active REO inventory coming to market and could be contributing to some aspects of housing shortages. 

———————————————————————————————————————

Homeownership Rate

The following information is from the 1st Quarter 2017.

The United States Census Bureau reported the following information for the third quarter:

Homeownership Rate                   63.6%

Homeowner Vacancy Rate          1.7%

Rental Vacancy Rate                     7.0%

***The appraiser will take into consideration rental vacancy rates (for a specific marketing area) if the income approach, within the appraisal report, is considered applicable and is developed per the scope of work of the assignment. Vacancy rates have a direct impact on GRMs as well as the development of capitalization rates.  Effective gross income and net operating income of real property are also impacted by vacancy rates and are considered in risk assessment analysis by income producing property investors.

———————————————————————————————————————

National Association of Realtors Information and News

A recent CNBC article dated April 24, 2017 stated in the headline “Spring housing: Strongest seller’s market ever”.  This is one of many such articles that made economic news in the month of April.  Low housing inventory continues to be a concern for many buyers throughout the county. 

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released new data on April 21, 2017 which indicated existing-home sales took off in March to their highest pace in over 10 years, and severe supply shortages resulted in the typical home coming off the market significantly faster than in February and a year ago. 

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated, “”Bolstered by strong consumer confidence and underlying demand, home sales are up convincingly from a year ago nationally and in all four major regions despite the fact that buying a home has gotten more expensive over the past year.”

Mr. Yun stated in his monthly speech that sales were higher by 5.9 percent which was better than what he had anticipated in the first three months of this year.  He felt the first three months of 2017 would be basically the same as the past year particularly in the light of affordability challenges from higher mortgage rates, and home prices that are easily outpacing people’s income.  Only last month, Mr. Yun stated that, “home prices are rising, perhaps a little too strongly”.  He admitted that housing prices are increasing nationwide at a higher pace that he anticipated and that national housing price increases are “tripling people’s wage growth”. The overall lack of inventory has continued and the number of active listing is down 6.6 percent from March of 2016. 

Mr. Yun also made the point that there is no condition, within national markets, were affordability is hurting sales as long as the job market remains strong. 

This interview can be found at the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaNqRxKXQAQ

***This appraisal report details the subject’s specific marketing area and shows current supply levels and offers a specific absorption rate analysis which will be contained in the 1004MC report.  If there is a lack of specific data, from the subject neighborhood, then the appraiser will utilize data from a greater marketing area to define specific market trends.  This information contained within the 1004MC will be client specific and will be impacted by the type of loan, scope of work and assignment (FHA, VA, Conventional, Etc.)

——————————————————————————————————————–

Newsletter Disclaimer

The Crawford Report Copyright ©2017 Phil Crawford. All Rights Reserved. 

by SEQ Legal 

(1)       Introduction 

This disclaimer governs the use of this newsletter.  [By using this newsletter, you accept this disclaimer in full. / We will ask you to agree to this disclaimer before you can access the newsletter.]

(2)       Credit

This disclaimer was created using an SEQ Legal template.

(3)       No advice

The newsletter contains information about macro-economic news and information, and valuation analysis.  The information is not advice, and should not be treated as such.

[You must not rely on the information in the newsletter as an alternative to [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] advice from an appropriately qualified professional.  If you have any specific questions about any [legal / medical / financial / taxation / accountancy] matter you should consult an appropriately qualified professional.]

[You should never delay seeking legal advice, disregard legal advice, or commence or discontinue any legal action because of information in the newsletter.]

(4)       No representations or warranties

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and subject to section 6 below, we exclude all representations, warranties, undertakings and guarantees relating to the newsletter.

Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, we do not represent, warrant, undertake or guarantee:

  • that the information in the newsletter is correct, accurate, complete or non-misleading;
  • that the use of guidance in the newsletter will lead to any particular outcome or result; or
  • in particular, that by using the guidance in the newsletter you will [specify result] [or [specify result]].

 (5)      Limitations and exclusions of liability

The limitations and exclusions of liability set out in this section and elsewhere in this disclaimer: are subject to section 6 below; and govern all liabilities arising under the disclaimer or in relation to the newsletter, including liabilities arising in contract, in tort (including negligence) and for breach of statutory duty.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any losses arising out of any event or events beyond our reasonable control.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any business losses, including without limitation loss of or damage to profits, income, revenue, use, production, anticipated savings, business, contracts, commercial opportunities or goodwill.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any loss or corruption of any data, database or software.

We will not be liable to you in respect of any special, indirect or consequential loss or damage.

(6)       Exceptions

Nothing in this disclaimer shall: limit or exclude our liability for death or personal injury resulting from negligence; limit or exclude our liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation; limit any of our liabilities in any way that is not permitted under applicable law; or exclude any of our liabilities that may not be excluded under applicable law.

(7)       Severability

If a section of this disclaimer is determined by any court or other competent authority to be unlawful and/or unenforceable, the other sections of this disclaimer continue in effect.

If any unlawful and/or unenforceable section would be lawful or enforceable if part of it were deleted, that part will be deemed to be deleted, and the rest of the section will continue in effect.

(8) Our details

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] of [Cincinnati, OH].

OR

In this disclaimer, “we” means (and “us” and “our” refer to) [Phil Crawford] trading as [Voice of Appraisal / The Crawford Report], which has its principal place of business in [Cincinnati, OH].

   

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